Five English clubs are guaranteed a spot in the competition next season.
And the race to qualify is tight, with only four points separating Manchester City in third and Aston Villa in seventh.
City sit behind leaders Liverpool and Arsenal, thanks to a dramatic 2-1 win over Villa on Tuesday night.
Following the result, Villa are the outsiders to earn a top-five place according to Opta’s supercomputer.
It gives Unai Emery’s side a 17.3% chance of Champions League qualification, while Chelsea’s sits at 29.7%.
Newcastle have been given a 77.6% chance, Nottingham Forest at 80.1$ and City at 95.1%.
City and Villa have played a game more than their rivals, with Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Chelsea having five games left to play.
Liverpool have already wrapped up Champions League football for next season mathematically, and Arsenal look all but certain to join them with a nine-point buffer over sixth spot.
This leaves City, Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa all battling for the other three Champions League spots.
