The World Bank has given a positive outlook for Nigeria’s economy, expecting it to grow steadily over the next three years. In its June Global Economic Prospects report, the Bank forecasts that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 3.6% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026, and 3.8% in 2027.
This forecast comes at a time when the global economy is facing slow growth. The World Bank has lowered its global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.3%, a drop of 0.4 percentage points. This is due to rising trade tariffs and global uncertainty.
The report, which is released twice a year, cut growth expectations for about 70% of the world’s economies, including the U.S., China, and countries in Europe. Even though the Bank does not expect a global recession, it warned that 2025 could see the weakest economic growth in a non-recession year since 2008.
By 2027, global economic growth is expected to average just 2.5%—the slowest rate for any decade since the 1960s. Trade is also expected to slow, growing by only 1.8% in 2025, down from 3.4% in 2024 and much lower than the 5.9% average seen in the 2000s.
These predictions are based on tariffs that were in place as of late May, including a 10% U.S. tariff on most imports. They do not include new tariffs proposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump in April, which were delayed until July to allow for talks.
The Bank also warned that inflation is expected to stay high. It forecasts global inflation to reach 2.9% in 2025, higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to increased tariffs and tight job markets.
The report stated, “Risks to the global outlook remain strongly on the downside.” It also warned that if U.S. tariffs rise by another 10 percentage points, and other countries respond similarly, it could reduce global growth in 2025 by another 0.5 percentage points.
Despite these global challenges, the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa is more hopeful. The region’s economy is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025 and by an average of 4.2% in 2026 and 2027. This assumes that global conditions do not worsen, inflation falls, and regional conflicts ease.
However, the growth forecast for the region is still below its long-term average and is not enough to significantly reduce extreme poverty. The forecast was also revised downward by 0.4 percentage points for 2025 and 0.2 points for 2026 due to weaker global conditions, more trade barriers, and less confidence in the market.
The report highlighted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth will depend on local governments lowering interest rates to encourage spending and investment. But countries that rely on exports, especially commodities, are still at risk due to lower global demand.
World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill pointed out a worrying trend for developing countries. “Outside of Asia, the developing world is becoming a development-free zone,” he said. “Growth has slowed from 6% a year in the 2000s, to 5% in the 2010s, and now to less than 4% in the 2020s.”
Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Bank’s Prospects Group, added that emerging markets used to benefit from global trade. “Now, they are at the center of a global trade conflict,” he said. “The best way forward is to build stronger trade relationships, carry out growth-friendly reforms, and strengthen their finances.”
The report ended by advising developing countries to focus on diversifying their trade and forming regional partnerships to help them deal with the growing trend of global protectionism.
