Kenneth Okonkwo, a member of the opposition coalition and former spokesperson for Peter Obi’s 2023 presidential campaign, has argued that President Bola Tinubu will easily secure re-election in 2027 if the African Democratic Congress (ADC)-led coalition nominates a southern candidate like Obi as its flag bearer.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today, Okonkwo said the coalition’s best chance to unseat Tinubu lies in presenting a strong northern candidate such as Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, or Aminu Tambuwal—figures capable of uniting the north’s political base.
“My strategy this time around is that I’m going to support a northerner in 2027,” he said. “It must be a northerner that the whole north is willing to support. If the north supports Atiku, why not? If they support Tambuwal, why not? The person must be qualified, and experience in the presidency would be an added advantage.”
Okonkwo, who left the Labour Party in July 2024 over internal crises and Obi’s failure to resolve them, criticised the idea of fielding another southern candidate against Tinubu, warning it would only split the southern vote and hand Tinubu victory.
“Anybody telling you to bring a fresh southerner to compete against Tinubu is simply zoning the ticket to Tinubu. And Tinubu will win outright,” he said.
Okonkwo further argued that even if a southeastern candidate were to win, “they will steal it from him,” citing the lack of establishment support and structural challenges.
“Peter Obi won the election in 2023, and they stole it from us. If you do it again, they will steal it from him because there is no incumbent to back you. But if you bring somebody from the north, nobody will prevail on him to leave his victory.”
Coalition Strategy and Internal Debates
Okonkwo’s comments come amid heightened political strategising within the ADC-led opposition coalition, which recently gained momentum at a high-profile meeting on July 2, 2025. The meeting brought together figures including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, former Senate President David Mark, former ministers Rauf Aregbesola and Rotimi Amaechi, and ex-Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai.
The coalition hopes to build on the combined strength of Atiku and Obi, who together secured over 12 million votes in the 2023 elections—more than four million above Tinubu’s declared total by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Targeting Tinubu’s Incumbency
President Tinubu, who defeated Atiku and Obi in the 2023 presidential race and was sworn in in May 2023, seeks a second term in line with Nigeria’s informal power rotation agreement between the north and south. Tinubu succeeded former President Muhammadu Buhari, who governed from 2015 to 2023 as a northern candidate.
Okonkwo described Tinubu’s administration as having “become incurably bad,” citing economic hardship, soaring inflation, and an unprecedented cost of living crisis.
“We want to terminate his incumbency,” Okonkwo said, rejecting claims that supporting a northern candidate would be unjust. “Where is the injustice? Whoever wins the primary will run for four years.”
The debate underscores deeper strategic divisions within the opposition on whether to challenge Tinubu’s incumbency with a northern heavyweight or risk splitting votes by fielding another candidate from the south.
