By Clement Nwabuko
ABUJA (PRECISE POST) – The Federal Government has welcomed Fitch Ratings’ decision to revise Nigeria’s economic outlook from stable to positive, describing it as recognition of ongoing economic reforms and growing confidence in the country’s policy direction.
Fitch Ratings, in its decision announced on October 9, 2026, affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings at ‘B’ while upgrading the outlook to positive, indicating the possibility of a future rating upgrade if current economic trends are sustained.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed the development in a statement shared on his X handle on Saturday.
According to Oyedele, the revised outlook reflects progress in exchange rate management, declining inflation, stronger foreign exchange reserves and sustained implementation of economic reforms.
He said Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024, supported by increased formalisation of foreign exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, export receipts and remittances.
The minister noted that Fitch had also projected a current account surplus of 6.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026, indicating an improvement in the country’s external position.
On economic growth, Fitch projected Nigeria’s real GDP to expand by 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with four per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven largely by non-oil activities.
The agency also noted that Nigeria’s crude oil production had met the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while increased domestic refining was helping to reduce refined petroleum product imports and foreign exchange demand.
Average inflation is projected to moderate to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level, according to the assessment.
On public finances, Oyedele said Fitch expected tax reforms to increase non-oil revenue relative to GDP, while general government debt was projected to average 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, significantly below the 56 per cent median for countries with a ‘B’ rating.
The rating agency also recognised Nigeria’s liquid domestic debt market and the ongoing bank recapitalisation exercise, noting that many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.
The minister further disclosed that all three major international credit rating agencies had taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.
He said S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised the country’s outlook to positive in August.
Additionally, FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status with effect from September 21, 2026.
Oyedele said the developments represented a converging assessment of Nigeria’s economic reform trajectory, credit profile and investment prospects.
He attributed the improved outlook to reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu, particularly the removal of the fuel subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and introduction of landmark tax reforms.
“Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade,” the minister said, adding that the objective was to reduce the country’s cost of capital, attract private investment and create jobs.
However, he acknowledged that Fitch had identified persistent challenges, including inflation levels above those of peer countries, low government revenue relative to the size of the economy and high interest payments that consume a significant proportion of public revenue.
To address these concerns, the minister said the government remained committed to sustaining a transparent and market-reflective foreign exchange regime, implementing new tax laws, strengthening fiscal governance and improving debt management.
He added that the administration would continue to pursue economic diversification, support small businesses and accelerate efforts to translate macroeconomic stability into improved living standards through food security, job creation and human development.
Oyedele said the government would sustain its reform programme, stressing that the ultimate objective was not merely to secure improved credit ratings but to establish stronger economic fundamentals capable of delivering long-term growth and shared prosperity.
