2027 Nigerian elections

The death of former President Muhammadu Buhari has sparked fresh uncertainty over the political direction of his loyalists, particularly those from the now-defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), which he founded in 2009.

Since President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023, the influence of CPC stalwarts has significantly declined. Prominent figures like ex-Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, have openly criticised Tinubu’s administration and signalled opposition to his potential second-term bid.

With Buhari’s passing, analysts predict the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) could face growing pressure from his fiercely loyal support base—long estimated at over 12 million voters.

New Alignments and the ADC Factor

Signs of tension have already surfaced, as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) actively courts Buhari’s base. This follows remarks by former military Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, who stated that Buhari’s death could dramatically reshape Nigeria’s political landscape.

“Politics in Nigeria will certainly change — I hope for the better,” Abdulsalami noted.

ADC interim National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, confirmed that several key Buhari loyalists had joined the party’s coalition.

“Most of Buhari’s loyalists are already with us,” Abdullahi said. “Their presence in the coalition shows that’s where Buhari stood.”

He named figures like Babachir Lawal, Abubakar Malami, Isa Pantami, Emeka Nwajiuba, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and Rauf Aregbesola as senior CPC figures now aligned with the coalition.

Abdullahi argued that Buhari’s legacy had been “demonised” by the current administration and claimed Tinubu’s government had blamed Buhari for nearly every economic setback.

“Why would they stay in APC when they’ve been humiliated and excluded?” he asked.

APC Insiders and Resistance to Defection

Despite growing defections, some CPC veterans remain within APC ranks. These include former Nasarawa State Governor Tanko Al-Makura, Katsina Governor Dikko Radda, former Speaker Aminu Masari, and others like Babale Ila, Ibrahim Gobir, Mohammed Tukur, and Buba Marwa.

Yet, sources indicate internal frustration, suggesting more CPC loyalists could leave before the 2027 elections.

Former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman, acknowledged on Arise TV that Buhari’s death had removed a figure whose endorsement could almost guarantee victory in northern states.

“Our leaders now need humility, unity, and new strategies,” Lukman urged.

APC Responds

APC’s Director of Publicity, Bala Ibrahim, insisted Buhari loyalists would remain in the party, citing ideological alignment.

“It’s not a vacuum that will deform the party,” Ibrahim said. “Instead, it should lead us to sober reflection and reform.”

Former Minister of Communications, Adebayo Shittu, dismissed rumours of defection and announced his intention to run for Oyo governorship under the APC in 2027.

“No, the exit of Buhari won’t break APC. While a few may leave, many others are joining,” Shittu added.

Northern Leaders Split

Arewa Consultative Forum’s former Secretary General, Anthony Sani, said he doubted Buhari’s death would lead to mass defections.

“Given Buhari’s commitment to APC, I do not see his supporters betraying him, even in death,” Sani noted.

However, Arewa Youth Consultative Forum President, Yerima Shettima, warned that Buhari’s passing could create a power vacuum.

“The APC now faces a critical turning point,” Shettima said. “The CPC bloc could either defend Buhari’s ideals within the APC or evolve into an independent political identity.”

He stressed that the APC’s response to public dissatisfaction would determine whether it remains dominant or loses credibility ahead of the 2027 elections.