As Nigeria looks ahead to the 2027 general elections, former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, has shared candid insights on why the North may reject Peter Obi and why Atiku Abubakar might struggle to unseat President Bola Tinubu.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with Daily Post, Sani outlined several political and historical factors that, in his view, strengthen Tinubu’s position despite growing opposition coalitions.
Why the North may not back Peter Obi
According to Sani, Northern voters are unlikely to trust Peter Obi to serve only one term. He drew parallels to former President Goodluck Jonathan, who once pledged a single term but later sought re-election, leading to disillusionment in the region.
“The North cannot trust Peter Obi that he will do just one term,” Sani explained. “You would recall President Jonathan pledged to do one term but reneged.”
Atiku faces zoning challenge
Sani also argued that Atiku Abubakar’s ambition could be undermined by Nigeria’s informal zoning agreement, which seeks to rotate the presidency between North and South to preserve national balance and unity.
“The politics of zoning does not favor Atiku because all southerners and most northerners support zoning for stability,” he said.
Tinubu’s chances boosted by Buhari’s legacy
Sani believes Tinubu remains the strongest candidate, largely due to the enduring loyalty of Buhari’s support base.
“Buhari had told his supporters he was committed to the APC until his death,” he noted. “Given the nature of Buhari’s followers, they would not want to betray him even in the grave.”
Opposition coalition lacks clear alternative
Asked whether a potential Atiku-Obi or Atiku-Amaechi ticket could topple Tinubu, Sani was skeptical.
“Whether the ticket is Atiku/Obi or Atiku/Amaechi, the result will be the same,” he said. “The opposition has yet to explain what it will do differently from the Tinubu administration.”
Sani argued that during the last elections, all major candidates—including Tinubu, Atiku, and Obi—campaigned on removing fuel subsidies. The close vote counts showed Nigerians viewed the issue as unavoidable, not a partisan debate.
“In the absence of a real alternative, the coalition is not a viable platform to defeat the ruling party,” he added, noting that parts of the South-South and South-East now lean toward the APC.
Role of Kwankwaso and El-Rufai
Commenting on potential kingmakers, Sani described former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as a brilliant technocrat but lacking the “street politics” needed for mass appeal. By contrast, former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, he said, could deliver significant votes—especially if he aligns with the APC.
“I foresee Kwankwaso defecting to APC and adding political value,” he predicted.
Final take
While the political landscape could still shift before 2027, Anthony Sani’s analysis underscores key factors: Buhari’s lingering influence, the North’s trust calculus, and the strategic weight of zoning. Unless the opposition coalition offers a compelling new vision, Sani believes Tinubu is well-positioned to secure a second term.
